I didn't mix my personal reactions into the summaries because I wanted to leave you to make up your own mind. But here I want to give you my honest critique of the book and what I think might be the best, most actionable takeaways.
Critique: I actually greatly enjoyed the book. As the author noted, the intent was to write a mass market, introductory volume explaining the Chinese government's involvement in economic development because he felt that everything — even and perhaps especially the educational materials in Chinese universities — focused on Western paradigms and could not, did not explain what was happening on the ground in China. It was in fact his own frustration when he returned from study abroad. I think in this, he has largely fulfilled his aim.
On the other hand, there is one obvious deficit in his account. While he does a fairly good job of not shying away from the very public economic crises in China — unequal development, over-reliance on exports, too much debt, and the complicated relationship between the economy and real estate, to name a few — he mainly harps on about the failures at the local government level and barely faults the central government for anything. I guess we'll never know what a more comprehensive narration would have entailed.
Here are some things I learned from the book that I rarely (never?) see emphasized elsewhere:
The Chinese constitution notes that while the central government leads, the local government is expected to take initiative.
- Nowadays, central govt has about 55% share of total national budget (up from 22%), and as % of GDP it is about 20% (vs 11% before).
- In China there is no clear division between legal responsibilities and power of the various departments, either vertically or horizontally. Everything is determined by internal rules and regulations, as represented by various documents that have strict formats and definitions. There are 15 different types of documents, eg ones that must be executed strictly such as Decisions 决定 and 命令 order, or flexibly so such as 意见 opinion or 通知 notice.
- Funded more by central governmet: defense, foreign affairs, national security, entering / exiting country, national highways, national strategic natural resources usage and protection, basic public services
- Funded more by local government: public safety, municipal transportation, rural roads, local social services and benefits, as these vary by region, involve complex information gathering & local citizens
- More centralized strategy: compulsory & higher education, scientific R&D, public culture, basic senior insurance, basic healthcare & pubic health, basic health insurance, employment, food safety, cross-region large infrastructure projects and environmental protection
- Both central & government funded: basic public services that are cross-region or benefitting from local data
Notable events in the timeline of Chinese economic development:
- In 1994 tax reform, the benefits of transferring rights of government-owned land were given to the local governments. It wasn't very much. To promote business activity, a lot of land was transferred at low costs in order to attract enterprises.
- In 1998, SOEs stopped giving away housing units to employees, and the real estate market began. Also the law prevented any farm land to be used for non-farming purposes, thus creating scarcity.
- As made obvious by Chapter 2, local government operations really depend on land prices. Local debt really exploded in 2008-9. Due to the US Great Financial Crisis, China put out a 4Trn RMB plan, 1.2 from central, 2.8 from local. To accommodate this plan, restrictions for the type of fundraising platforms above and bank loans were loosened.
- Government industry guidance funds are a sort of localization of Silicon Valley venture funds. They were mostly started in 2014 under the reforms of reducing capacity and leverage. According to Zero2IPO in June 2019, there were 1,686 such funds with around 4Trn RMB in capital. According to Chinaventure, the number is smaller, 1,311 funds and 2Trn RMB.